Saturday, August 30, 2008

More Sleepers, Creepers and Leapers

Last time we talked about some RBs that could take a step forward this year. As we get closer to the start of the season, we have a pretty good idea of who's going to be starting and who is not. Now I want to focus on the QBs, WRs and TEs to target in your drafts or even off the wire if you've already drafted.

QBs

Kurt Warner ARI (sleeper) - We're still waiting to get official word that he's the starter, but after the way he's outplayed Leinart during the preseason, even if he's not the starter I think he puts up better numbers and has the potential to be a top 10 QB if he starts the whole year.

David Garrard JAC (creeper) - Jacksonville is known for their running game, but Garrard proved to be an extremely consistent QB for most the year (a highly underrated stat in fantasy football). He doesn't have the weapons that Warner or Schaub have, but the same line that opens the holes for Taylor and Jones-Drew will give Garrard time to find the weapons he does have. I see him as a low end #1 and great #2 QB.

Matt Schaub HOU (leaper) - When healthy, Matt can hang with any other QB in the league. With the combination of one of the best WRs in the league (Andre Johnson - when healthy), a solid #2 (Kevin Walter), a pass catching TE (Owen Daniels) and a suspect defense, Schaub could be this year's Tony Romo and make the leap into the top 5. Of course health is a concern with him and his weapons, but if they can stay healthy for 12 - 14 games, the sky is the limit.

WRs

Josh Morgan SF - At 6'1" and 22o lbs, Morgan has the size to compete at this level. He's still fighting Bryant Johnson for the #2 WR in Mike Martz's new offense, but either way I see him stepping up and being SF's most productive WR. Martz has a way of unearthing WR gems (M. Furrey, S. McDonald, A. Hakim) and despite being a rookie, Morgan has the potential to be this year's M. Colston. Take a flyer on him as your #5 WR and watch him soar.

Jerrico Cotchery NYJ - We all know what Brett Favre can do for a WR. Greg Jennings is just the last in a long line that he's made a star. I think both L. Coles and Cotchery both will benefit from Favre's arrival, but I think Cotchery is the one he'll look for on those long deep throws he is known for. With an improved OL, the Jets appear ready to break out on offense.

Calvin Johnson DET - Probably the most hyped WR from the preseason, Johnson flashed his potential last year before injuring his back early in the year. He's admitted that it slowed him down all year. I think the hype is for real and he'll truly establish himself as a superstar in the NFL. Roy Williams is the veteran, but "Megatron" is ready to transform.

TEs

Zach Miller OAK (creeper) - After catching 44 balls last year, he's poised to catch over 80 this year as JaMarcus Russell matures as a QB. He'll be his security blanket and could be a red zone threat as McFadden attracts the defense. Target him late and he should provide top 10 production.

Dustin Keller NYJ (sleeper) - Another of Favre's new targets, this rookie TE has shown his potential this preseason. We all know Brett's love of the TE and if he can beat out the other TEs, he could develop into a solid starter and potential for more.

UPDATE - With Rudi Johnson being cut by CIN, Chris Perry's value takes a huge jump. Kenny Watson is still in the mix, but bump Perry up your draft lists.

Keep watching for those last minute cuts that could effect player's value or who is really named the starter. Good luck drafting. The countdown to kick off is on...

Late Season Help

This a the time in the fantasy year where every hit, rbi, sb or save can make a difference. If you're in a head to head league, you're either prepping for the playoffs or fighting for that last spot. If you're in a roto league, it's probably pretty clear what teams are still in it and who's out. If you're reading this, you're hopefully still in it and are still looking for that difference maker off the wire. For most leagues the trade deadline has past, so the wire is your only option. Fortunately there are some guys who can help and I'm here to point them out. This isn't about names, but about stats. It might be time to drop that struggling vet for the unknown guy off the wire who just got called up or returned from an injury. Anyone can help, so make the move and bring home the victory.

Call-ups

Nelson Cruz OF TEX - He's been here before, but after a disappointing stint last year with the Rangers, he killed AAA with 37 HRs, .342 BA and 99 RBIs. He's up now and playing regularly. He's got the skills, but let's see if he can deliver when it counts. I'd take a flyer on him if you need power, but be prepared for a low BA at first.

Pablo Sanoval C/CI SF - A highly touted prospect getting his first action in the majors hasn't disappointed. SF wants to see what he can do, so he's playing almost everyday. In leagues that he's C eligible (5 games so far), he's an immediate pick up, but he could be 1b or 3b eligible soon. Watch his games played and be ready to pounce. He could deliver solid production down the stretch.

Max Scherzer SP/RP ARI - He's just returned from the minors and appears headed to the pen. He's shown he can pitch in the majors, so now it's just a matter of opportunity. Y. Petit is still locked in at the 5th spot, so he'll probably end up in the pen, but he has the potential to be a spot starter or even the closer if things fall apart in the Diamondback's pen.

Returning from the DL

Ryan Church OF NYM - He appears to be back to full health and is now starting almost everyday for the Mets. If he can hit like he did the first 3 months, he'd be a steal off the wire. He's started off slow, but he should be watched closely and even worth a flyer now before he heats up.

Adam Jones OF BAL - I've talked about him before, but he's close to returning to the Oriole's lineup and you should grab him now and stash him on your DL. His power/speed combination would be a welcome addition to any fantasy roster for the final month.

Ryan Spilborghs OF COL - He's been out a while, but it appears that he'll be back by Sept. 1 if things go smoothly on his rehab assignment. COL is playing well and he should get plenty of playing time if he proves healthy. He's a solid option if you miss out on Church or Jones.

There you go. Some late seasons options for those still in the hunt. Don't let the start of football derail the work you've put in during the summer. You can still make a run or hold off that 2nd place team.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Draft Prep - Part 3

8) Mock your draft - Mock drafting allows you test out a few of your strategies as well as give you an idea of where players are going and what their ADP is doing. The site I use the most is www.mockdraftcentral.com. They have drafts happening every 15 minutes and with almost every scoring system or league configuration you can think of. If you don't know what your draft position will be, you can try a few different spots so you have a plan no matter what slot you get. Or if you know your spot, you can see how taking that QB first will effect you later in the draft or if going RB/RB will position you for success. As starters are named, injuries happen or rookies display their potential, players ADP will rise or fall as we get closer to the start of the season. Make sure you know which way they're going so you'll be ahead of the curve on draft night.

9) Have fun - The draft is one of the best parts of fantasy football, so don't get too stressed out. If your gut says take the unproven rookie over the boring vet, go for it. It's your team. Don't let anyone tell you who to take or when to take them.

Now, let's talk about a few RBs I'm targeting in my drafts this year.

Chris Johnson TEN (sleeper) - The rookie has exploded onto the scene in TEN and everything we hear out of Titan's camp is that he's going to get the ball. I could see a 50/50 split with Lendale White to start, but he could take over half way through the year and has the potential to be this year's Adrian Peterson.

Ricky Williams MIA (creeper) - Ronnie Brown is still being drafted ahead of him, but he's looked great so far and should dominate the carries in Miami. I think it takes Ronnie a while before he's back up to full speed. Take Ricky as your #3 or #4 RB with upside.

Michael Turner ATL (creeper) - Finally out of LT's shadow, "Burner" Turner is the man in ATL. There won't be much talent around him, but he's got the skills to succeed. I think he has great upside for a #2 RB and could crack the top 10. If Matt Ryan can keep the defenses honest, the holes should be there for him to show what he can do.

Maurice Jones Drew, JAX (leaper) - We all know what MJD can do, now it's time for him to take it to the next level. That might take an injury to Fred Taylor (yes, I know he's not "Fragile Fred" anymore), but with Jacksonville's commitment to the run along with their stellar defense, this could be the year it all comes together. He's currently going as a upside #2 and I think that's right where I'd grab him and be ready for take off.

Next time I'll talk about some QBs, WRs and TEs to target as well. Good luck and have fun drafting.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Draft Prep - Part 2

5) Develop your own draft strategy – There are many options on how to approach a draft. One of the most common has been to take 2 RBs in the first 2 rounds of your draft. With the decline of true #1 RBs in the league, this strategy has lost some momentum. You need to pay close attention to your starting lineup requirements as well as your scoring system. If you start 2 QBs, then QBs might go sooner than in those leagues that start 1. Or if you get 1 pt per reception, then those players who might not score as much, but get receptions get a bump. I also don’t like to target certain players or positions in the top 6-7 rounds. I like to be flexible in those early rounds and just take the player who offers the best value where I’m picking. Later in the draft you can target certain position to fill out your roster. Whatever you do, come up with a rough game plan and you’ll more than likely be ahead of your league.

6) What to bring to the draft? – This is where keeping it simple is the best way to go. You don’t want to have to shuffle through multiple sheets or rankings to keep up during the draft. Condensing your rankings to one sheet is ideal. I like to rank more players than I’ll need, just in case I need a late round sleeper. I also like to bring a blank roster to fill out as I go and on the same sheet a list of the other teams and positions. This way you can check off positions as they are filled by your leaguemates. This allows you track what other teams need. This comes in handy when you’re still needing a QB and you know the teams drafting behind you have filled their QB quota, then you can wait a round or two longer and still know you should be able to get that QB you want.

7) What’s a sleeper and what’s a bust? - These are buzz words in the fantasy world and they mean many different things to many different people. I define a sleeper as any player that has the potential to outperform his draft position. Or on the other hand, under perform his draft position. Make sure you understand this before doing your research.

Next time I’ll talk about the last few items to do before the draft as well as give you some sleepers (see above), creepers (who is ready to take the next step) and leapers (who is ready to break out and become elite). Try and catch some of this week’s preseason’s games as they are closest thing we’ll have to real action until the season starts. Starters should play 2 or 3 quarters and give us a feel for how guys will perform.

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Count down

As we near the stretch run, I thought I'd give you a few names to keep in the back of your mind for next year's draft. These guys probably are not quite sleepers, but almost pre-sleepers. They are guys who have somewhat surprised us this year and have provided a glimpse of what they could be in the next year or two. I'll run down the names position by position and give a quick word on each.

C - Dioner Navarro TBY - He came close to breaking out this year, but with Tampa's resurgence he's poised to be a top 10 catcher next year.

1b - Chris Davis TEX - Meet the next Adam Dunn. He'll strike out his share, but he has 30-35 HR and 125 RBI potential, especially protecting Josh Hamilton in Texas.

2b - Alexei Ramirez CHI - He should have OF and SS eligibility next year and should be CHI's starting SS. With power and speed, he's ready to break out.

3b - Ian Stewart COL - We all love young COL hitters and Ian fits the bill. He'll be their starting 3b for years to come.

SS - Mike Aviles KC - Not a highly touted prospect, but showed this year that he can hit. KC has the potential to be next year's Tampa Bay.

MI - Jed Lowrie BOS - Eligible at all the infield positions, he should be ready to move into your starting lineup.

CI - Billy Butler KC - Almost a post-hype sleeper, Butler finally displayed the keen batting eye that had him labeled as the next Mike Sweeney.

OF - Fred Lewis SF - One of the first Giant youngsters to get a job this year, he gave his owners great value for a waiver wire find. He should be a solid #3 OF with potential to go higher next year.

OF - Adam Lind TOR - A highly touted prospect who finally got a shot this year and has really delivered. He's ready to explode next year, ala Ryan Ludwick. I'll be targeting him, and the next guy, in next year's draft.

OF - Adam Jones BAL - The prize of the Bedard trade, he finally lived up to the hype he had received in the past. With a great average and a power/speed combo, he could be the next stud OF.

SP - Manny Parra MIL - After fighting for a job this spring, he showed how good he could be once Gallardo went down. I think he has a great shot at taking the next step next year.

SP - Jonathan Sanchez SF - I think Sanchez could be the next Cole Hamels if he can work on his control. He's got the stuff, 133 K's in 135 innings. Now he just has to show he knows how to pitch.

RP - Jonathan Broxton LAD - We've waited for Broxton for a while and he's finally getting his shot now. If he can deliver down the stretch for the Dodgers, I think the closer role is his for the next 5 years.

RP - Chris Perez STL - Last, but not least, Perez is another young flame thrower who is getting his shot in the midst of a pennant race. LaRussa has finally made up his mind on a closer (at least for this week) and Perez has come through.

There you go. These guys probably won't be kept on many teams, but they could turn into the McLouths, Hamiltons or Kinslers of next year.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Draft Prep - Part 1

I wanted to put together a quick, easy-to-grasp draft article that should help you prepare for your football draft. I won’t get into too many details, but if you have more questions, feel free to drop me an email at betweengames@gmail.com.

Most of these tips will be assuming a 12-team standard non-keeper league (4 pts for passing TD, 6 pts for other TDs, 1 pt per 10 yards, etc). I’ll also be working with a 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 D and 1 K lineup. Don’t worry keeper league players, I’ll touch on those leagues soon.

Today I’ll outline 4 easy steps to do right now that will get you ready for your draft. I emphasize right now because you need to start soon, so you can get up to speed on all of the preseason news.

1) Watch some football — One way to get excited about football is to watch some live action. You get to see some of these guys in live action (or on replay on nfl.com, if you can’t see the games live). Who’s playing with the first stringer or in the first 2 quarters? Who’s hurting? Is that 1st round pick going to start? How will any coaching changes effect an offense? (Mike Martz in SF or Cam Cameron in BAL) You don’t need to worry about specifics until around week 3, but it’s good to get some initial reactions so later if you need to make a decision between to players, you’ve seen them with your own eyes.

2) Analyze depth charts — This can be good and bad. Sometimes coaches drop players down on the list to motivate them (yes, I’m talking to you, Mike Shanahan), but for the most part this can give you a clue to a few things. It might give you the true backup to your stud RB. It can also give you a hint at which WR is going to #2 or #3.

3) Do your own research — I love it when people I’m in leagues with tell me they just bought their fantasy magazine to get ready for the draft. It just makes it so much easier to beat them to the punch. The problem with those magazines is that most of them are written in April right after the NFL draft. Even the mock drafts are conducted well before training camps even start. You need to search out a few different sites (if you want some suggestions, drop me an email) and make your own rankings based on a variety of opinions. This will give you a wide range of rankings and you can make up your own mind on whom you like and whom you don’t. One word of caution though. You can easily digest too much information and think everyone’s a sleeper or a bust.

4) Learn what ADP means — ADP stands for Average Draft Position. The draft is all about finding the best value at the position you’re drafting. You can find value at any draft spot and it becomes more important the later in the draft. ADP gives you a general idea of where players are being drafted. This will help you when you’re sitting there deciding if you need to draft that #4 WR or that #1 TE. Many sites have ADP listed with their rankings, but make sure they align with your league’s specifics (# of teams, # of starting RBs, etc).

There you have it. Just some simple steps to take now that will get you ready for your draft. The draft is one of the most important parts of the season and there’s no excuse not to be prepared. Watch for part 2 soon.

Other stuff

Check out my some of my other articles about fantasy baseball here. More on my keeper league there and the site itself soon.

Monday, August 11, 2008

SEA WR Bobby Engram out 6-8 weeks

I just wanted to give a quick update on the WR situation in SEA. #1 WR Bobby Engram broke a bone in his shoulder and is expected to miss at least 6 - 8 weeks. This is huge blow to the SEA passing game and knocks Matt Hasselbeck down a few notches on your draft board. This was a pass first team. With the RB situation still up in the air, the identity of their offense is yet to be seen. I would bump up Nate Burleson a few spots, but we don't yet know who will fill the #2 WR role. Look for Courtney Taylor to get first crack at the spot, but Ben Obomanu to factor into the mix as well. I'll be back later this week to start a series on gearing up for your draft. Stay tuned for any upates throughout the week as well.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Training Camp

Now let’s talk football. This is where it gets exciting. I love fall and the promise of football season. We just had our first set of preseason games and now that we’re done with the Brett Favre saga, let’s take a look at a few training camp stories that could lead to some great value in your drafts.

Before we start I want to acknowledge those of you who might be new to fantasy sports. Feel free to comment with questions or take a look this site that could help.

Seattle’s starting RB – After cutting Shaun Alexander, the Seahawks brought in Julius Jones and TJ Duckett to take over the job. Well, after the first preseason game it appears that Maurice Morris, yes that Maurice Morris, has the inside track on the starting job. Duckett had an awful first game and Jones didn’t fair much better, while Morris ran for 62 yards on just 6 carries. Morris could be a great guy to grab as your 4th or 5th RB and provide solid #2 RB production if he gets the job. Stay tuned and see if Morris can hold off the other guys and keep the job when the season opens.

Eddie Royal overtakes Darrell Jackson in DEN at WR — With Brandon Marshall suspended for at least the first 2 games, most people see the newly acquired Darrell Jackson stepping in to replace him. Well, not so fast. Eddie Royal appears to be the starter in DEN for now. We all know how much we can trust Mike Shanahan, but I think Royal is a big sleeper this year. Just as Jay Cutler appears to be on the brink of a breakout season, I think the DEN passing game takes the next step this year as well. Look for Cutler, TE Tony Scheffler, Royal and even Marshall to lead the way in draft day value. I see all of them providing higher value than where they are being drafted right now. Jackson and the veteran Brandon Stokley will be drafted higher than Royal, but I see the speedster out-producing them this year.

I'm out for now, but feel free to comment and let me know what you think. Keep watching those preseason games and get those cheat sheets ready for draft day. I’ll be back at least a couple times a week to keep you prepped and ready for Game Day.

First Take

Okay, why should you read another blog about fantasy sports? Well, you shouldn’t…unless you want a fresh perspective on fantasy baseball and football. I’ll provide my take on teams, players and stats in the fantasy world. Hopefully in the process, I’ll keep you entertained and one step ahead of your fellow competitors.

Let’s start with baseball. As the season winds down, let’s take a look at some recent events that could have an impact on your league’s outcome.

Carlos Lee breaks finger and is out for 6 – 8 weeks — As a Lee owner, this one hurts. It looks like he’ll miss the rest of the season. You can’t replace his stats, so the best you can do is look for some options off of the wire or if you still have time, try and trade for some help. Don’t act too quickly though as you could hurt yourself in another area when trying to replace Lee. A few outfielders that could be available are Jody Gerut SD, Jason Kubel MIN or even Brian Giles SD.

Huston Street to share job as Oakland’s closer — There has been a lot of turnover recently on a number of team’s bullpens. Oakland has a lot of quality arms in theirs and so this isn’t a huge surprise. I think they want to see what they have in case they’re able to deal Street. It appears Brad Zeigler is the next in line. He still hasn’t given up an earned run and this rookie doesn’t appear to be ready to do that any time soon. Joey Devine and Santiago Casilla are also options, but both have battled the injury bug this year. I still think Street gets some chances, but I’d grab Zeigler as well.

That’s all for now. Feel free to comment and let me know what you think. I’ll be back at least a couple times a week to keep you prepped and ready for Game Day.