First Impressions

I'm back. Sorry for the extended break. An unexpected vacation and busy start to the season has slightly derailed the blog, but no worries. I'm ready to get back into it. I thought I'd start by taking a look at a few of the early season story lines after the first two weeks.

Injured Starting Pitchers - It started with John Lackey and Ervin Santana, but more recently Dice-K, Webb and Carpenter have joined them on the injured list. Webb is the biggest name and while his injury does not sound serious, it's always worrisome when your ace has any arm trouble. Lackey and Santana should be back in a month or so along with John Smoltz who is progressing nicely in his rehab. I'd grab any of these guys and stash them if I could. Dice-K and Carpenter just went on the DL today and both are cause for concern. Dice-K has what's called arm fatigue, most likely from pitching in the WBC, but he hasn't look sharp and it could be more serious. I'd be concerned. I'd also be slightly concerned with Carpenter. He looked really good in the spring and had a superb first outing as well. This looks like it could keep him out for a while, but hopefully he can bounce right back and continue his amazing return to dominance.

Early Surprises - Like every season, there are guys who start off hot almost out of nowhere. Brandon Inge, Nick Swisher, Nyjer Morgan and even Marco Scutaro have blazed out of the gate. Obviously these guys can't keep up their pace, but most of these guys do have skills. I'd grab every one of them and ride the hot streak. Just be ready to dump them when the slump comes and more than likely it will come.

Early Disappointments - There are too many to list, but the first 3 rounds are littered with guys that haven't gotten on track yet. From Ryan Braun to Jimmy Rollins to Jose Reyes to Mark Teixera to Lance Berkman to Prince Fielder. Not to mention Arod and Ichiro with their injuries. Please be patient with these guys. These guys will hit and you don't want to be the guy to trade them away. Now, in some leagues guys might be getting nervous already, so if there's a hint that you can steal one of these top hitters away, go for it.

It is still early. I like to give my team until at least May 1 before making major changes. That doesn't mean you don't swap that struggling bench player or grab a SP with a good matchup. Just don't overhaul your roster just yet. It's a long season and things will even out.

Almost here

With roughly one week to go before the season starts I thought it'd be a good opportunity to review some spring stand outs to see who might be for real this year. We do have to be careful looking at spring stats, but it's important to look at a few things when considering these stand outs: Are they returning from an injury? Are they fighting for a new starting job? Were these guys a highly touted prospect that might have been forgotten after a slow start to their career? Did they finish strong in the 2nd half of last season? These are just a few questions to consider when looking at players in the spring.

Adam Jones OF BAL - He was the prized prospect of the Eric Bedard trade and didn't have a great start to his career in BAL, but finished strong in the 2nd half and has built on that success this spring. With a .378 BA, 1 HR and 7 SBs, he's showing the talent that made him a coveted piece of the trade. He showed promise last year, but never really put it all together. I think he's primed for a mini break out this year and might threaten 20+ SBs with solid numbers across the board.

Kevin Gregg RP CHC - When he was traded to the Cubs this off season, it appeared that he was brought in to set up flamethrower Carlos Marmol. The problem this spring has been Marmol's lack of effectiveness. Gregg has been solid and appears to have done enough to possibly win the closer job. Pinella is supposed to choose this weekend, but either way Gregg should figure into the saves picture and can be had pretty late in most drafts. Don't sleep on this sleeper.

Chris Carpenter SP STL - For a 4 year stretch he was one of the best pitchers in the NL. After a couple of surgeries he's on his way back this spring. He's shown great control with only 4 walks in 19 innings. He also hasn't allowed an earned run while racking up 10 K's. If he can return to form this season, he could be the steal of draft since he's being taken in the late teen rounds of most 12 team leagues.

Jordan Zimmermann SP WAS - The "other" Zimmermann in WAS, Jordan has burst onto the scene with 20 K's in only 14 innings. He has also wrapped up the 5th spot in the National rotation and looks to possibly be this year's Edison Volquez. While I'm not ready to put him on that level, he is definitely worth a flyer late in most 12 team leagues, if anything for the strike out potential.

Ryan Howard 1b PHI - This might be an obvious one, but I wanted to point out the potential steal this guy could be. People are scared off from Howard because of his BA, but if he can raise his average to .270 he'll easily give you first round value. He's leading all players with 7 HRs and hitting a respectable .293 with 18 RBIs. I think he rebounds and is well worth a selection at the end of round 1 or beginning of round 2.

Moving up and moving down

As we get closer and closer to the start of the season, you should be ready for your draft. By this time, you shouldn't need to move guys to far one way or another (except in the case of serious injury or demotion). Today I wanted to discuss a few guys that seem to be moving in recent drafts. Some are gaining value while others are sliding for various reason. Let's start with the guys moving up.

LA's offense - With Manny now in the fold once again, the entire Dodgers lineup seems to be gaining momentum. From Furcal to Kemp to Either, everyone loves having Manny's bat back in the lineup. There's good reason for it and I agree that this offense should be one of the best in the NL...if everyone can stay healthy.

Chris Carpenter SP STL and Eric Bedard SP SEA - Two form aces seem to be returning to form this spring. There's always risk when a pitcher is coming back from injury, but these guys are well worth the risk where they are being drafted. Just be sure not to reach too high for them or the risk might out weigh the reward.

Pablo Sandoval 1b/3b/C? SF - Depending on your league Sandoval could offer great value at C. He's still a solid sleeper at corner, but he's been rising up draft boards more recently. I still think he's worth a shot and should deliver great numbers in the heart of SF's lineup.

Now let's turn to the guys sliding down a bit...

Ervin Santana SP LA - After a breakout season last year, he was poised to take the next step to elite status. That's been put on hold by a sprained elbow ligament. He's going to rest and take some time off, but that's a huge red flag for me and I've dropped him down a few rounds. If he falls too far, he could be a steal, but watch this closely.

Alex Rodriguez 3b NYY - This is an obvious one, but a tough one to gauge. Where do you take him now? We don't know when he'll be back. We don't know when he'll be himself even when he's back. My guess is someone will reach for him too early. I'll be the one who lets someone else draft him and then swoop in after he returns and isn't quite himself for the first few games. He should be Arod by the All Star break, but that might be too long to wait for some owners.

Cole Hamels SP PHI - After a superb season followed by an MVP World Series, Hamels recently complained of some discomfort in his elbow. He had a huge work load last year and this doesn't help the concerns. I wouldn't be too worried, but I'd defiantly bump him down a few spots.

Arod, Santana and Manny

Let's start with the biggest news of the last week, the bizarre saga of Alex Rodriguez. After the buzz of the steroid controversy cooled off, we were left with a seemingly normal spring training from Arod. He was playing and practicing without any issues. Then the news comes in that he's dealing with a cyst on his hip. Then a trip to see a specialist. Then he's having hip surgery and he's out at least 10 weeks. Then he's going to try rehab, no surgery, and might not miss a beat. Then finally we get news this week. He will undergo surgery, but it's a "combo" surgery on the hip that should allow him to return quicker than the original plan, but still means a recovery time from 6 - 10 weeks. So, now that we know how long he will be out, what does it mean for fantasy? Well, he's obviously going to drop, but how far should he drop? I'm guessing he returns mid-May and misses about 4-6 weeks of the regular season. I also think it'll take him some time to get back to playing shape and get his timing down. I'd still take a shot at Arod around round 3 or 4 of a standard 12 team mixed league (assuming you can throw him in your DL slot), but he'll still come with a ton of risk and even though the upside is huge, I'd probably let someone else take a chance on him.

We had another injury scare last week when news of Johan Santana's elbow soreness popped up. He was shut down and the talk was of him missing the season opener. Well, the fear has subsided as he's had a few successful bullpen sessions. He's scheduled to make his spring debut this Thursday and he is still planning to start opening day. I wouldn't totally dismiss this news, but see how he performs the rest of spring to determine if this should bump him down your rankings at all.

Last, but not least is the news of Manny Ramirez finally signing in LA. It's about time. We all knew Manny wasn't going to sit out. We also knew Manny wasn't stupid. The new contract allows him to opt out after 1 year and go after bigger money yet again next winter. He is a year older, but this immediately bumps up the value of the rest of the LA lineup once again. If Furcal can stay healthy, he'll be one of the best leadoff hitters in the league. I also like Kemp and Either to build on their breakout years last season. I even like Russell Martin to return to dominance at the catcher position. Manny's presence can only help the Dodgers team. Now that's assuming Manny doesn't mentally check out like he did in Boston. Only time will tell. As for drafting Manny, he's going in the late 2nd round to mid 3rd round. He will be a year older, but I still see solid enough production to make him a #1 OF.

Starting Pitching Value

Ok, so now that you're waiting to draft a starting pitcher, who do you target in those mid to late rounds? I thought I'd run down a few options that could provide good value and a solid core to build your staff around.

Javier Vazquez SP ATL - Vazquez delivered a disappointing 2008 season despite putting up quality stats in some of the categories, especially strike outs with 200. The problem was that those good strike out numbers didn't turn into fantasy success. With only 12 wins and an era of 4.67. I like Vazquez to rebound for a number of reasons. He should find things a bit easier in the NL and if he can maintain his strike out rate, he should deliver much better numbers.

Zach Grienke SP KC - Grienke was a pleasant surprise for the Royals last year and gave owners who found him on the wire with 180+ K's as well as an excellent 3.47 ERA. Look for him to build on his success and make that leap into the upper tier of SP.

Scott Baker & Kevin Slowey SP MIN - The Twins always seem to find quality pitchers and these 2 are no exception. While they won't wow you with their power, but what they will give you is quality innings and normally a chance for a win. Baker delivered a minuscule WHIP of 1.18 while Slowey was a little better at 1.15. These are the guys that you need to gain points in those ratio categories.

Matt Garza SP TBY - Another former Twin, Garza came through for the upstart Rays last year and provided them a solid #3 starter. He didn't come through with great fantasy stats, but he should improve with another year under his belt. He'd also be a great #3 or #4 starter for you squad.

Randy Johnson SP SF - You know that The Big Unit's best days are behind him, but he can still put up the numbers to help you this year. A move to SF could give him a boost across the board (well, maybe not in the win category). He still came close to a strike out an inning and if he can stay healthy, he should bump those numbers up slightly.

There are many more options available in the last half of your draft like these. They are just a few examples of why it's smart to wait on starting pitching and grab a bunch of those hitters first. With a few of these guys and some smart waiver wire work early in the year, you'll be positioned to make a run for the title.

Why wait to draft starting pitching?

Over the past few years I've tried many different strategies when it comes to starting pitching. Today I want to talk about a few reasons why waiting to draft your starting pitching can be a good way to approach your draft. I'm going to focus on a standard 12 team roto league with 10 categories. Obviously this might be tweaked depending on your league's size and rules.

I usually approach the draft with some basic objectives. I like to normally wait until at least round 7 to draft a pitcher and then at that point I usually go for my first closer. I usually target a closer who will get me K's and good ratios. Then I follow that up with either another closer or my first SP in the next 2 to 3 rounds. That gives me a good foundation for my staff. I might even wait until round 9 if there are still enough quality SPs left on the board. This allows me to build an offense that can dominate most leagues. I then look to add the core of my staff in rounds 11-15, when the other teams are filling out those missing holes in their offense.

So, why does this work and why should you try it? Well, for one thing it's much easier to predict the stats for hitters than it is for pitchers. Therefore hitters tend to be more consistent and less of a risk, especially in the early rounds. Hitters also can contribute in all 5 of the hitting categories, while even the best SPs can only help you in 4.

The next key to this strategy is watching the waiver wire. Just look back at least year to see what you can find off the wire. Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, John Danks and Edison Volquez are just a few examples of the quality of SP that you could slip through the cracks and not get drafted. Then you can also look to the top last season's rankings to see some of the pitchers that didn't give you the value you were expecting like Erik Bedard, Justin Verlander, Carlos Zambrano, and even Johan Santana to some extent.

The last area I want to focus on is the idea of pitch or ditch. Basically it's just maximizing your IP by using one or two spots on your roster to grab SPs off the wire each week with easy matchups or who have shown flashes of brilliance in the recent past. This is how you can find those undrafted gems and really put you at an advantage. If they pitch well, you can give them 1 or 2 more starts and see if it was a fluke or the real deal.

I'd recommend giving this strategy a try this year, especially in some mock drafts. It can be tough to pass up the likes of Webb, Haren or Hamels, but if you can hold off and go for those 2nd tier guys, you'll have an advantage over your competition. Good luck.

Undervalued potential

The season is upon us as spring training has officially started. I'm sure by now you've started to schedule some drafts and maybe take your first look at some cheat sheets. Well, I'm here to help and this time I'll be discussing those guys that might not show up as high as you would think. There could be various reasons for that, but I think there's a chance these guys could give you great value in your drafts when they rebound this year. Their flying under the radar and could give you that boost late in your draft to bring home a win. We'll start in down in Tampa Bay.

Carl Crawford OF TBY - Yes, he hasn't shown the power/speed combination that we had hoped to see by now, but last year wasn't the true Crawford either. Even if he never lives up to the hype, he can still deliver great speed numbers for a vastly improved Rays' lineup. He's a former first rounder that you might be able to snag in the late third round.

Prince Fielder 1b MIL - In some eyes, last year was a disappointment for Fielder after exploding to hit 50 HRs two years ago. But I'd take 34 HRs and over 100 RBIs from my 1b any day. I think he'll fall somewhere in between those numbers this year and in the 3rd round, he could offer great value.

Rafael Furcal SS LAD - Plagued by injuries last year, Furcal had one of his worst seasons as a pro. I think Manny returns to LA and Furcal proves to be the true lead off hitter they were looking for last year. He might not challenge 40 SBs ever again, but he could give you 30 plus over 100 runs scored.

Victor Martinez C/1B CLE - I can still remember waiting and waiting for VMart to hit that first HR last year. He should bounce back and challenge McCann, Martin and Mauer for elite catcher status once again, although this will be his last year of catcher eligibility.

Robinson Cano 2b NYY - His disappointing season last year wasn't the result of an injury, but just a bad year. He showed signs of breaking out if it multiple times, but never really regained his 2007 form. I would be more than willing to gamble on him bouncing back big time and with all of the new weapons in NY, this could be a huge year for Cano.

John Lackey SP LAA - After a late preseason injury derailed the first half for Lackey last year, he struggled to get back his form all year. He's healthy now and he should bounce back to the form that had him at the top of the SP rankings just 2 years ago.

Not all of these guys will regain the level of previous years, but I also think you should expect a major increase in production from a year ago. A lot of people look at last year's stats, but a look closer will reveal the true potential these guys till possess. Grab them a little earlier than their going now and you should get a big return on your investment.

Busts

To follow up last week's article on sleepers, I wanted to give you a few names to look at for potential busts this fantasy season. These guys will still probably have fine years, but the cause for concern comes from where you'll need to draft them in order to get them on your team. The draft is all about value and these guys won't come close to giving you as much value as others this year. Most of these guys had career years last year and history shows us to expect some kind of decline the year after.

Aubrey Huff 1b/3b BAL - The first few names on this list almost came out of nowhere last year to put up huge numbers. Huff is no exception. An afterthought in most drafts, he went on to hit .304 with 32 HRs and 108 RBIs. Those are awesome numbers to find on the waiver wire, the problem is he probably won't last past the middle of the draft this year and if he drops back to his career averages, then you'll be overpaying.

Carlos Delgado 1b NYM - Another veteran that was left for dead heading into 2008, Delgado came through huge for those who took a late round gamble on him last year. His age and injury concern should give you enough pause to let someone else gamble on him repeating last year's success.

Dustin Pedroia 2b BOS - Don't get me wrong, I love almost everything about Pedroia's skills and situation. He's in a great lineup and should have a great year. Again, the problem comes in where you'll have to draft him to get that potential. His amazing MVP season was just that, amazing, but I could see some of those numbers leveling off as the rest of the league adjusts to him. If he falls a round or two, grab him, but I'll pass for now.

Josh Hamilton OF TEX - Another super star in the making, Hamilton exploded last year with eye popping numbers. He slowed down in the 2nd half as some minor injuries began to take their toll. I could see another MVP type season, as well as a HR Derby crown, but with him going toward the end of the first round, he's just a little too risky for me.

Francisco Rodriguez RP NYM - What can you say about KRod? Breaking the save record and then getting paid as he lands in the Big Apple. The expectations will be high and so will the risk. Injury has always been a concern for KRod, but the bigger concern this year will be living up to the hype that comes after breaking a record like that. He should rack up the saves in New York, but I'll take a few safer options before him.

C.C. Sabathia SP NYY - Another free agent that lands in NY, Sabathia couldn't do anything wrong in the 2nd half of last season. He was dominant and nearly untouchable. I see some big wins coming for him in NY, but I also see some higher ratios as well. The AL East won't be as manageable as the NL Central and even though he should win a few more, I could see the rest of his numbers suffering. Proceed with caution.

The next group I'll cover are those guys that might be forgotten this year and hence fall in drafts. They were either hit by the injury bug, had a down year, or just don't get the respect they deserve. I'll call those guys under-the-radar and we'll look at them next time.

Sleepers

Toward the end of the last season I highlighted some 2nd half studs to keep an eye on for 2009 so you can make your own sleeper list. We'll here we are on the eve of the 2009 season and it's time to review the list and see who's still worthy of sleeper status. I'll go position by position and highlight one or two guys to move up your draft board.

C - Dioner Navarro TBY, Pablo Sandavol SF - Both are still sleepers in my book and I love gambling on sleepers at the catcher position. I like Sandavol's upside a bit more, plus he could have multi-position eligibility.

1b/3b/CI - Chris Davis TEX, Ian Stewart COL, Billy Butler KC - Davis is probably one of the hottest names on this list, so he might cost you more than he's worth. I wouldn't hesitate to reach for him though. Just look what another young slugger (Josh Hamilton) did in TEX last year. Stewart and Butler are both solid sleepers that can be had later in the draft. I like Stewart over Butler if you're looking for a late round flyer.

2b/SS/MI - Alexei Ramirez CWS, Mike Aviles KC, Jed Lowrie BOS - Ramirez is another hot name this spring who might come at a high cost. He's been compared to a young Soriano at 2b and could have SS eligibility soon. I wouldn't hesitate to make him your starting MI. Aviles and Lowrie have pretty good upside and are both worthy MIs as well.

OF - Fred Lewis SF, Adam Lind TOR, Adam Jones BAL, Elijah Dukes WAS, Chris Dickerson CIN - Quite a few options in the OF and I'm sure there are many more. These are the guys who showed me something last year and have the potential to take the next step ala Nate McLouth this season. Of these guys, I like Adam Jones the most. He's going to be the starter and have every opportunity to play. Lind and Dukes come in next on potential, while Lewis and Dickerson flashed some skills last summer, but the jury is still out on them.

SP - Manny Parra MIL, Jonathan Sanchez SF, Max Scherzer ARI - Again, I'm sure there are a ton more names that could go on this list, but these guys again showed enough last year to warrant sleeper status. Scherzer has the pedigree, but may not have the opportunity or be healthy enough to produce right away. Parra could be worth a spot, but my vote goes to Sanchez. I love his strike out potential and as Tim Lincecum has shown, you can win in SF.

RP - Jonathan Broxton LAD, Chris Perez STL, Jensen Lewis CLE - It seems like this year there are more potential closers to choose from than ever. These three youngsters got their shot last year and for the most part performed well. Lewis will most likely be setting up Kerry Wood this year, but he still holds some value because of his ratios and K's. Perez is still young and it doesn't sound like LaRussa has complete confidence in him as the main man. Broxton is hands down the best option of this bunch. He's been an excellent set up man for a few years and now he gets his chance to shine. Grab him with confidence as your #2 closer.

Not all of these guys will pan out this year, but I'm betting on more than a few to break out in a major way, just like the McLouths, Hamiltons and Kinslers of last year. Good luck.

Draft Prep - Part 2

Here are a few more tips as we get closer to the start of the season.

Keep up with the latest news - Nothing is worse than drafting a guy only to realize that he's going to start the season on the DL thanks to a off the field injury in the off season. It only takes a few minutes each week to get up to speed on the latest happenings around major league baseball. I like to check out rotoworld.com for any hot stories or breaking news.

Pay some attention to spring training action - We've all heard that spring training stats are meaningless, but there are some signs to watch for during these games. How are certain guys rebounding from last season's injury? Who is the manager using after the starting pitcher? It's not usually who gets the saves in spring training, it's usually who the manager goes to after the starter is done for the day. Is that hot rookie getting playing time? These are just a few things to watch for as the games get going.

Refine your rankings and practice drafting - After you're gone through and moved a few guys around based on your gut as well as who you'd rather draft, it's time to put it to the test. Mockdraftcentral.com is an excellent place to try out your draft strategy. They offer free mock drafting almost every half hour, with serious people and quality results. Try drafting from a few different draft positions and see what happens. Try taking a SP first. Mix things up to see how your teams ends up. It'll give you a rough idea of when you can wait on guys and when you need to jump on that guy a few rounds earlier. Obviously ever league is different, so you have to know where your league might be different, but this is a good place to start.

Get to know your league mates - This seems obvious, but unless you're in a league full of long time friends, chances are these guys you're playing with are strangers. It could be a phone call, email or an instant message, but make contact with as many league mates as you can. It'll build some kind of relationship that will come in handy down the road. After all, this is supposed to be fun. I've met people all over the world through fantasy baseball.

Next time I'll run through some of my initial thoughts on some sleepers and busts and give a little clearer definition on each.

Draft Prep - Part 1

Before you know it spring training will be here. Now is the perfect time to start getting your rankings started and prepping for your draft(s). I'll go through a few things I like to do to get ready for the season.

Know your league rules This seems like an obvious one, but you'd be surprised how many people don't realize that there are 12 teams instead of 10 or that your league starts 5 OFs instead of 3. It never hurts to run through the roster requirements as well as your scoring system. It could effect who you take in the draft or when you draft a certain position. If you've been in a league for a while, you can still check with your commissioner on any changes to the rules this year.

Start with a deep list of players at each position I like to start my draft prep by grabbing list of at least the top 30 players at each position. OF, RP and SP are obviously deeper, but it depends on what your roster requirements are. I usually just grab the list from one of the major sites (mlb.com is a good place to start). I also try and grab a list of the top prospects that have a chance to either make a roster this spring or to be called up during the year. These guys might not be draft worthy, but you'll need to familiarize yourself with the names in case you hear them later as potential call ups or if they tear up the Catcus league.

Quickly re rank players based on your gut reaction This is going to change, but I like to get my initial reaction to the rankings and adjust them by which players I'd rather draft and which I'd rather pass on. This gives you a quick run down of who you'd likely to draft if you had to.

Scan a few sleeper, bust and breakout lists Be careful when doing this that you don't get too swayed by one person's opinion. I like to get a broad range of opinions so I can form my own opinion when the draft comes around. This also gets you familiar with some of the hot names that might go earlier than they should. It could also provide a list of guys who might be bargains.

Next I'll dive into the stats and how to make sense of the numbers. It can be overwhelming, I'll try to make it a little easier. I'll be pulling for the Cardinals next Sunday as the NFL season comes to a close. That should signal that opening day isn't that far off.

Baseball is back!!!

After a fun and wild football season, I'm back to talk fantasy baseball. With pitchers and catchers reporting in only 24 days, spring training is just around the corner. I wanted to start off the 2009 season by reviewing some of the biggest names that have changed teams and the impact that could make on their stats. New York's teams have seen most of the biggest signings, so let's start there...

C.C. Sabathia SP NYY, Mark Teixeira 1b NYY & A.J. Burnett SP NYY - We'll start with the Yankees who are back in the game with a big splash this off season. Getting arguably 2 of the best SP options, as well as one of the best free agent bats, give the Yankees a huge makeover in one fail swoop. They'll still have Arod, Jeter, Cano and the rest, but with Teixeira they get a legit power option to replace Jason Giambi and solidify the 1b position. Teixeira can hit anywhere, so this move doesn't boost his value a ton, but hitting in that lineup is bound to help his numbers. The pitchers' value should get a bigger bump because of the run support they're likely to get, as well as having Mariano Rivera closing games. Sabathia will still go as one of the top 5 SPs, while Burnett's still an injury risk, but could give you solid numbers if you're willing to take the risk.

Fransisco Rodriguez RP NYM & J.J. Putz RP NYM - The Mets made their own splash across town by adding 2 of the best bullpen arms available. KRod maintains his top position in the closer rankings but coming off a career high in saves should give you a slight pause if you're planning to draft him. Putz's value takes a huge hit as he'll set up KRod now, but he's worth grabbing later as he could fill in nicely if KRod were to get injured.

Matt Holiday OF OAK - Another of the top bats moves from the friendly confines of COL to the spacious OF in OAK. We all know the perception that Coors Field has, but we also know that Holliday can hit anywhere. It's yet to be seen how much of a hit his value will take, but I'm betting on him still putting up 1st or 2nd round numbers. He could be a steal if he falls to far.

Kerry Wood RP CLE - After a great comeback with the Cubs last year as a closer, he was shipped to CLE to take over there. He's always an injury risk, but proved he could handle the role well last year. I'd be willing to gamble on him again, but make sure you grab some insurance late.

Those are just a few of the big names that have changed teams this off season. We're still waiting for Manny Ramirez to sign, but where ever he lands he should produce, as long as he's happy.

I'll be back soon to layout my writing plan for the year as well as touch on some draft tips as we get closer to the start of spring training. Stay tuned.

I also wanted to take this opportunity to plug a couple of great sites to check out. www.fantasybaseballtrademarket.com as well as www.mockdraftcentral.com are a couple of great places to start your preparations for the 2009 season.

Early look at 2009

I'm back after a vacation break and wanted to wrap up the 2008 season by looking ahead to 2009. Let's take a quick look at what could be next year's first round.

1) Adrian Peterson RB MIN - If leading the league in rushing is considered a down year, then I can't wait to see with AP does in a good year. He'll be 24 in 2009 and still has room for improvement. If MIN gets a professional QB, look out. You won't be disappointed with this #1 overall selection.

2) Micheal Turner RB ATL - What else can you say about Turner and the whole ATL team? They shocked everyone and made the playoffs this year. Turner evolved into a stud in the 2nd half after a few down weeks early on and can only build on his break out year.

3) Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC - With Fred Taylor out of the picture, MJD is set to be a stud next year. I could see him take a huge step in production as the Jags bounce back after a disappointing season.

4) DeAngelo Williams RB CAR - Wow. He was clearly the #1 RB this year after a huge season that saw many multiple TD games and some big yardage totals as well. It's yet to be determined how much more work Jonathan Stewart might see next year, but you can't argue with the results so far.

5) Matt Forte RB CHI - Forte brought a new dimension to the Bears' offense this year and should continue to see his production increase next year. With the added value his pass catching ability brings, Forte is a solid #1 RB next year.

6) Brian Westbrook RB PHI - If not for his continuing injuries he'd be right up there with AP. No one can argue with his production, but with the uncertainty of McNabb his ranking is uncertain.

7) Frank Gore RB SF - SF is another team on the rise and if Shaun Hill can solidify the QB position, Gore's potential could still be realized. He's a great #1 option with upside.

8) Andre Johnson WR HOU - The first WR off the board really stepped up this year and finally connected with Matt Schaub at a new level. With the emergence of Slaton, Walters and Daniels, HOU finally has the weapons to keep the pressure off of Schaub and the double coverage away from AJ.

9) Marion Barber RB DAL - This stud RB slides down the list after an up-and-down year that brought some injuries and the emergence of 2 quality backs behind him. I wouldn't worry too much about Choice or Jones next year, but be sure to grab one of them. I could see a similar situation to the Giants' this year, but Barber is still the guy to own

10) Drew Brees QB NO - Brees finally showed his potential this year as the Saints offense exploded despite missing its' best WR and RB for a majority of the year. The sky is the limit next year if Colston can stay healthy and their defense doesn't get any better.

11) Steve Slaton RB HOU - Slaton had to overcome a number of obstacles this year and really showed his value for HOU. He's a dual threat that can get the tough yards inside as well. HOU is on the rise and Slaton will be a major part of it.

12) Chris Johnson RB TEN - The 3rd rookie RB to move into the first round, Johnson would be much higher if not for Lendale White. I expect his touches to increase and White's to decrease, but White should still get the goal line work. That will keep him from moving into the top 5...yet.

There you have it. You'll notice some big names that didn't make the list (LT, Addai and Jackson), but they could provide huge value in the 2nd round if you're lucky enough to have them fall in your lap.

Now onto baseball, but I'll be back to talk football around draft time.