Ok, so now that you're waiting to draft a starting pitcher, who do you target in those mid to late rounds? I thought I'd run down a few options that could provide good value and a solid core to build your staff around.
Javier Vazquez SP ATL - Vazquez delivered a disappointing 2008 season despite putting up quality stats in some of the categories, especially strike outs with 200. The problem was that those good strike out numbers didn't turn into fantasy success. With only 12 wins and an era of 4.67. I like Vazquez to rebound for a number of reasons. He should find things a bit easier in the NL and if he can maintain his strike out rate, he should deliver much better numbers.
Zach Grienke SP KC - Grienke was a pleasant surprise for the Royals last year and gave owners who found him on the wire with 180+ K's as well as an excellent 3.47 ERA. Look for him to build on his success and make that leap into the upper tier of SP.
Scott Baker & Kevin Slowey SP MIN - The Twins always seem to find quality pitchers and these 2 are no exception. While they won't wow you with their power, but what they will give you is quality innings and normally a chance for a win. Baker delivered a minuscule WHIP of 1.18 while Slowey was a little better at 1.15. These are the guys that you need to gain points in those ratio categories.
Matt Garza SP TBY - Another former Twin, Garza came through for the upstart Rays last year and provided them a solid #3 starter. He didn't come through with great fantasy stats, but he should improve with another year under his belt. He'd also be a great #3 or #4 starter for you squad.
Randy Johnson SP SF - You know that The Big Unit's best days are behind him, but he can still put up the numbers to help you this year. A move to SF could give him a boost across the board (well, maybe not in the win category). He still came close to a strike out an inning and if he can stay healthy, he should bump those numbers up slightly.
There are many more options available in the last half of your draft like these. They are just a few examples of why it's smart to wait on starting pitching and grab a bunch of those hitters first. With a few of these guys and some smart waiver wire work early in the year, you'll be positioned to make a run for the title.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Friday, February 20, 2009
Why wait to draft starting pitching?
Over the past few years I've tried many different strategies when it comes to starting pitching. Today I want to talk about a few reasons why waiting to draft your starting pitching can be a good way to approach your draft. I'm going to focus on a standard 12 team roto league with 10 categories. Obviously this might be tweaked depending on your league's size and rules.
I usually approach the draft with some basic objectives. I like to normally wait until at least round 7 to draft a pitcher and then at that point I usually go for my first closer. I usually target a closer who will get me K's and good ratios. Then I follow that up with either another closer or my first SP in the next 2 to 3 rounds. That gives me a good foundation for my staff. I might even wait until round 9 if there are still enough quality SPs left on the board. This allows me to build an offense that can dominate most leagues. I then look to add the core of my staff in rounds 11-15, when the other teams are filling out those missing holes in their offense.
So, why does this work and why should you try it? Well, for one thing it's much easier to predict the stats for hitters than it is for pitchers. Therefore hitters tend to be more consistent and less of a risk, especially in the early rounds. Hitters also can contribute in all 5 of the hitting categories, while even the best SPs can only help you in 4.
The next key to this strategy is watching the waiver wire. Just look back at least year to see what you can find off the wire. Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, John Danks and Edison Volquez are just a few examples of the quality of SP that you could slip through the cracks and not get drafted. Then you can also look to the top last season's rankings to see some of the pitchers that didn't give you the value you were expecting like Erik Bedard, Justin Verlander, Carlos Zambrano, and even Johan Santana to some extent.
The last area I want to focus on is the idea of pitch or ditch. Basically it's just maximizing your IP by using one or two spots on your roster to grab SPs off the wire each week with easy matchups or who have shown flashes of brilliance in the recent past. This is how you can find those undrafted gems and really put you at an advantage. If they pitch well, you can give them 1 or 2 more starts and see if it was a fluke or the real deal.
I'd recommend giving this strategy a try this year, especially in some mock drafts. It can be tough to pass up the likes of Webb, Haren or Hamels, but if you can hold off and go for those 2nd tier guys, you'll have an advantage over your competition. Good luck.
I usually approach the draft with some basic objectives. I like to normally wait until at least round 7 to draft a pitcher and then at that point I usually go for my first closer. I usually target a closer who will get me K's and good ratios. Then I follow that up with either another closer or my first SP in the next 2 to 3 rounds. That gives me a good foundation for my staff. I might even wait until round 9 if there are still enough quality SPs left on the board. This allows me to build an offense that can dominate most leagues. I then look to add the core of my staff in rounds 11-15, when the other teams are filling out those missing holes in their offense.
So, why does this work and why should you try it? Well, for one thing it's much easier to predict the stats for hitters than it is for pitchers. Therefore hitters tend to be more consistent and less of a risk, especially in the early rounds. Hitters also can contribute in all 5 of the hitting categories, while even the best SPs can only help you in 4.
The next key to this strategy is watching the waiver wire. Just look back at least year to see what you can find off the wire. Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, John Danks and Edison Volquez are just a few examples of the quality of SP that you could slip through the cracks and not get drafted. Then you can also look to the top last season's rankings to see some of the pitchers that didn't give you the value you were expecting like Erik Bedard, Justin Verlander, Carlos Zambrano, and even Johan Santana to some extent.
The last area I want to focus on is the idea of pitch or ditch. Basically it's just maximizing your IP by using one or two spots on your roster to grab SPs off the wire each week with easy matchups or who have shown flashes of brilliance in the recent past. This is how you can find those undrafted gems and really put you at an advantage. If they pitch well, you can give them 1 or 2 more starts and see if it was a fluke or the real deal.
I'd recommend giving this strategy a try this year, especially in some mock drafts. It can be tough to pass up the likes of Webb, Haren or Hamels, but if you can hold off and go for those 2nd tier guys, you'll have an advantage over your competition. Good luck.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Undervalued potential
The season is upon us as spring training has officially started. I'm sure by now you've started to schedule some drafts and maybe take your first look at some cheat sheets. Well, I'm here to help and this time I'll be discussing those guys that might not show up as high as you would think. There could be various reasons for that, but I think there's a chance these guys could give you great value in your drafts when they rebound this year. Their flying under the radar and could give you that boost late in your draft to bring home a win. We'll start in down in Tampa Bay.
Carl Crawford OF TBY - Yes, he hasn't shown the power/speed combination that we had hoped to see by now, but last year wasn't the true Crawford either. Even if he never lives up to the hype, he can still deliver great speed numbers for a vastly improved Rays' lineup. He's a former first rounder that you might be able to snag in the late third round.
Prince Fielder 1b MIL - In some eyes, last year was a disappointment for Fielder after exploding to hit 50 HRs two years ago. But I'd take 34 HRs and over 100 RBIs from my 1b any day. I think he'll fall somewhere in between those numbers this year and in the 3rd round, he could offer great value.
Rafael Furcal SS LAD - Plagued by injuries last year, Furcal had one of his worst seasons as a pro. I think Manny returns to LA and Furcal proves to be the true lead off hitter they were looking for last year. He might not challenge 40 SBs ever again, but he could give you 30 plus over 100 runs scored.
Victor Martinez C/1B CLE - I can still remember waiting and waiting for VMart to hit that first HR last year. He should bounce back and challenge McCann, Martin and Mauer for elite catcher status once again, although this will be his last year of catcher eligibility.
Robinson Cano 2b NYY - His disappointing season last year wasn't the result of an injury, but just a bad year. He showed signs of breaking out if it multiple times, but never really regained his 2007 form. I would be more than willing to gamble on him bouncing back big time and with all of the new weapons in NY, this could be a huge year for Cano.
John Lackey SP LAA - After a late preseason injury derailed the first half for Lackey last year, he struggled to get back his form all year. He's healthy now and he should bounce back to the form that had him at the top of the SP rankings just 2 years ago.
Not all of these guys will regain the level of previous years, but I also think you should expect a major increase in production from a year ago. A lot of people look at last year's stats, but a look closer will reveal the true potential these guys till possess. Grab them a little earlier than their going now and you should get a big return on your investment.
Carl Crawford OF TBY - Yes, he hasn't shown the power/speed combination that we had hoped to see by now, but last year wasn't the true Crawford either. Even if he never lives up to the hype, he can still deliver great speed numbers for a vastly improved Rays' lineup. He's a former first rounder that you might be able to snag in the late third round.
Prince Fielder 1b MIL - In some eyes, last year was a disappointment for Fielder after exploding to hit 50 HRs two years ago. But I'd take 34 HRs and over 100 RBIs from my 1b any day. I think he'll fall somewhere in between those numbers this year and in the 3rd round, he could offer great value.
Rafael Furcal SS LAD - Plagued by injuries last year, Furcal had one of his worst seasons as a pro. I think Manny returns to LA and Furcal proves to be the true lead off hitter they were looking for last year. He might not challenge 40 SBs ever again, but he could give you 30 plus over 100 runs scored.
Victor Martinez C/1B CLE - I can still remember waiting and waiting for VMart to hit that first HR last year. He should bounce back and challenge McCann, Martin and Mauer for elite catcher status once again, although this will be his last year of catcher eligibility.
Robinson Cano 2b NYY - His disappointing season last year wasn't the result of an injury, but just a bad year. He showed signs of breaking out if it multiple times, but never really regained his 2007 form. I would be more than willing to gamble on him bouncing back big time and with all of the new weapons in NY, this could be a huge year for Cano.
John Lackey SP LAA - After a late preseason injury derailed the first half for Lackey last year, he struggled to get back his form all year. He's healthy now and he should bounce back to the form that had him at the top of the SP rankings just 2 years ago.
Not all of these guys will regain the level of previous years, but I also think you should expect a major increase in production from a year ago. A lot of people look at last year's stats, but a look closer will reveal the true potential these guys till possess. Grab them a little earlier than their going now and you should get a big return on your investment.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Busts
To follow up last week's article on sleepers, I wanted to give you a few names to look at for potential busts this fantasy season. These guys will still probably have fine years, but the cause for concern comes from where you'll need to draft them in order to get them on your team. The draft is all about value and these guys won't come close to giving you as much value as others this year. Most of these guys had career years last year and history shows us to expect some kind of decline the year after.
Aubrey Huff 1b/3b BAL - The first few names on this list almost came out of nowhere last year to put up huge numbers. Huff is no exception. An afterthought in most drafts, he went on to hit .304 with 32 HRs and 108 RBIs. Those are awesome numbers to find on the waiver wire, the problem is he probably won't last past the middle of the draft this year and if he drops back to his career averages, then you'll be overpaying.
Carlos Delgado 1b NYM - Another veteran that was left for dead heading into 2008, Delgado came through huge for those who took a late round gamble on him last year. His age and injury concern should give you enough pause to let someone else gamble on him repeating last year's success.
Dustin Pedroia 2b BOS - Don't get me wrong, I love almost everything about Pedroia's skills and situation. He's in a great lineup and should have a great year. Again, the problem comes in where you'll have to draft him to get that potential. His amazing MVP season was just that, amazing, but I could see some of those numbers leveling off as the rest of the league adjusts to him. If he falls a round or two, grab him, but I'll pass for now.
Josh Hamilton OF TEX - Another super star in the making, Hamilton exploded last year with eye popping numbers. He slowed down in the 2nd half as some minor injuries began to take their toll. I could see another MVP type season, as well as a HR Derby crown, but with him going toward the end of the first round, he's just a little too risky for me.
Francisco Rodriguez RP NYM - What can you say about KRod? Breaking the save record and then getting paid as he lands in the Big Apple. The expectations will be high and so will the risk. Injury has always been a concern for KRod, but the bigger concern this year will be living up to the hype that comes after breaking a record like that. He should rack up the saves in New York, but I'll take a few safer options before him.
C.C. Sabathia SP NYY - Another free agent that lands in NY, Sabathia couldn't do anything wrong in the 2nd half of last season. He was dominant and nearly untouchable. I see some big wins coming for him in NY, but I also see some higher ratios as well. The AL East won't be as manageable as the NL Central and even though he should win a few more, I could see the rest of his numbers suffering. Proceed with caution.
The next group I'll cover are those guys that might be forgotten this year and hence fall in drafts. They were either hit by the injury bug, had a down year, or just don't get the respect they deserve. I'll call those guys under-the-radar and we'll look at them next time.
Aubrey Huff 1b/3b BAL - The first few names on this list almost came out of nowhere last year to put up huge numbers. Huff is no exception. An afterthought in most drafts, he went on to hit .304 with 32 HRs and 108 RBIs. Those are awesome numbers to find on the waiver wire, the problem is he probably won't last past the middle of the draft this year and if he drops back to his career averages, then you'll be overpaying.
Carlos Delgado 1b NYM - Another veteran that was left for dead heading into 2008, Delgado came through huge for those who took a late round gamble on him last year. His age and injury concern should give you enough pause to let someone else gamble on him repeating last year's success.
Dustin Pedroia 2b BOS - Don't get me wrong, I love almost everything about Pedroia's skills and situation. He's in a great lineup and should have a great year. Again, the problem comes in where you'll have to draft him to get that potential. His amazing MVP season was just that, amazing, but I could see some of those numbers leveling off as the rest of the league adjusts to him. If he falls a round or two, grab him, but I'll pass for now.
Josh Hamilton OF TEX - Another super star in the making, Hamilton exploded last year with eye popping numbers. He slowed down in the 2nd half as some minor injuries began to take their toll. I could see another MVP type season, as well as a HR Derby crown, but with him going toward the end of the first round, he's just a little too risky for me.
Francisco Rodriguez RP NYM - What can you say about KRod? Breaking the save record and then getting paid as he lands in the Big Apple. The expectations will be high and so will the risk. Injury has always been a concern for KRod, but the bigger concern this year will be living up to the hype that comes after breaking a record like that. He should rack up the saves in New York, but I'll take a few safer options before him.
C.C. Sabathia SP NYY - Another free agent that lands in NY, Sabathia couldn't do anything wrong in the 2nd half of last season. He was dominant and nearly untouchable. I see some big wins coming for him in NY, but I also see some higher ratios as well. The AL East won't be as manageable as the NL Central and even though he should win a few more, I could see the rest of his numbers suffering. Proceed with caution.
The next group I'll cover are those guys that might be forgotten this year and hence fall in drafts. They were either hit by the injury bug, had a down year, or just don't get the respect they deserve. I'll call those guys under-the-radar and we'll look at them next time.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Sleepers
Toward the end of the last season I highlighted some 2nd half studs to keep an eye on for 2009 so you can make your own sleeper list. We'll here we are on the eve of the 2009 season and it's time to review the list and see who's still worthy of sleeper status. I'll go position by position and highlight one or two guys to move up your draft board.
C - Dioner Navarro TBY, Pablo Sandavol SF - Both are still sleepers in my book and I love gambling on sleepers at the catcher position. I like Sandavol's upside a bit more, plus he could have multi-position eligibility.
1b/3b/CI - Chris Davis TEX, Ian Stewart COL, Billy Butler KC - Davis is probably one of the hottest names on this list, so he might cost you more than he's worth. I wouldn't hesitate to reach for him though. Just look what another young slugger (Josh Hamilton) did in TEX last year. Stewart and Butler are both solid sleepers that can be had later in the draft. I like Stewart over Butler if you're looking for a late round flyer.
2b/SS/MI - Alexei Ramirez CWS, Mike Aviles KC, Jed Lowrie BOS - Ramirez is another hot name this spring who might come at a high cost. He's been compared to a young Soriano at 2b and could have SS eligibility soon. I wouldn't hesitate to make him your starting MI. Aviles and Lowrie have pretty good upside and are both worthy MIs as well.
OF - Fred Lewis SF, Adam Lind TOR, Adam Jones BAL, Elijah Dukes WAS, Chris Dickerson CIN - Quite a few options in the OF and I'm sure there are many more. These are the guys who showed me something last year and have the potential to take the next step ala Nate McLouth this season. Of these guys, I like Adam Jones the most. He's going to be the starter and have every opportunity to play. Lind and Dukes come in next on potential, while Lewis and Dickerson flashed some skills last summer, but the jury is still out on them.
SP - Manny Parra MIL, Jonathan Sanchez SF, Max Scherzer ARI - Again, I'm sure there are a ton more names that could go on this list, but these guys again showed enough last year to warrant sleeper status. Scherzer has the pedigree, but may not have the opportunity or be healthy enough to produce right away. Parra could be worth a spot, but my vote goes to Sanchez. I love his strike out potential and as Tim Lincecum has shown, you can win in SF.
RP - Jonathan Broxton LAD, Chris Perez STL, Jensen Lewis CLE - It seems like this year there are more potential closers to choose from than ever. These three youngsters got their shot last year and for the most part performed well. Lewis will most likely be setting up Kerry Wood this year, but he still holds some value because of his ratios and K's. Perez is still young and it doesn't sound like LaRussa has complete confidence in him as the main man. Broxton is hands down the best option of this bunch. He's been an excellent set up man for a few years and now he gets his chance to shine. Grab him with confidence as your #2 closer.
Not all of these guys will pan out this year, but I'm betting on more than a few to break out in a major way, just like the McLouths, Hamiltons and Kinslers of last year. Good luck.
C - Dioner Navarro TBY, Pablo Sandavol SF - Both are still sleepers in my book and I love gambling on sleepers at the catcher position. I like Sandavol's upside a bit more, plus he could have multi-position eligibility.
1b/3b/CI - Chris Davis TEX, Ian Stewart COL, Billy Butler KC - Davis is probably one of the hottest names on this list, so he might cost you more than he's worth. I wouldn't hesitate to reach for him though. Just look what another young slugger (Josh Hamilton) did in TEX last year. Stewart and Butler are both solid sleepers that can be had later in the draft. I like Stewart over Butler if you're looking for a late round flyer.
2b/SS/MI - Alexei Ramirez CWS, Mike Aviles KC, Jed Lowrie BOS - Ramirez is another hot name this spring who might come at a high cost. He's been compared to a young Soriano at 2b and could have SS eligibility soon. I wouldn't hesitate to make him your starting MI. Aviles and Lowrie have pretty good upside and are both worthy MIs as well.
OF - Fred Lewis SF, Adam Lind TOR, Adam Jones BAL, Elijah Dukes WAS, Chris Dickerson CIN - Quite a few options in the OF and I'm sure there are many more. These are the guys who showed me something last year and have the potential to take the next step ala Nate McLouth this season. Of these guys, I like Adam Jones the most. He's going to be the starter and have every opportunity to play. Lind and Dukes come in next on potential, while Lewis and Dickerson flashed some skills last summer, but the jury is still out on them.
SP - Manny Parra MIL, Jonathan Sanchez SF, Max Scherzer ARI - Again, I'm sure there are a ton more names that could go on this list, but these guys again showed enough last year to warrant sleeper status. Scherzer has the pedigree, but may not have the opportunity or be healthy enough to produce right away. Parra could be worth a spot, but my vote goes to Sanchez. I love his strike out potential and as Tim Lincecum has shown, you can win in SF.
RP - Jonathan Broxton LAD, Chris Perez STL, Jensen Lewis CLE - It seems like this year there are more potential closers to choose from than ever. These three youngsters got their shot last year and for the most part performed well. Lewis will most likely be setting up Kerry Wood this year, but he still holds some value because of his ratios and K's. Perez is still young and it doesn't sound like LaRussa has complete confidence in him as the main man. Broxton is hands down the best option of this bunch. He's been an excellent set up man for a few years and now he gets his chance to shine. Grab him with confidence as your #2 closer.
Not all of these guys will pan out this year, but I'm betting on more than a few to break out in a major way, just like the McLouths, Hamiltons and Kinslers of last year. Good luck.
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