Almost here

With roughly one week to go before the season starts I thought it'd be a good opportunity to review some spring stand outs to see who might be for real this year. We do have to be careful looking at spring stats, but it's important to look at a few things when considering these stand outs: Are they returning from an injury? Are they fighting for a new starting job? Were these guys a highly touted prospect that might have been forgotten after a slow start to their career? Did they finish strong in the 2nd half of last season? These are just a few questions to consider when looking at players in the spring.

Adam Jones OF BAL - He was the prized prospect of the Eric Bedard trade and didn't have a great start to his career in BAL, but finished strong in the 2nd half and has built on that success this spring. With a .378 BA, 1 HR and 7 SBs, he's showing the talent that made him a coveted piece of the trade. He showed promise last year, but never really put it all together. I think he's primed for a mini break out this year and might threaten 20+ SBs with solid numbers across the board.

Kevin Gregg RP CHC - When he was traded to the Cubs this off season, it appeared that he was brought in to set up flamethrower Carlos Marmol. The problem this spring has been Marmol's lack of effectiveness. Gregg has been solid and appears to have done enough to possibly win the closer job. Pinella is supposed to choose this weekend, but either way Gregg should figure into the saves picture and can be had pretty late in most drafts. Don't sleep on this sleeper.

Chris Carpenter SP STL - For a 4 year stretch he was one of the best pitchers in the NL. After a couple of surgeries he's on his way back this spring. He's shown great control with only 4 walks in 19 innings. He also hasn't allowed an earned run while racking up 10 K's. If he can return to form this season, he could be the steal of draft since he's being taken in the late teen rounds of most 12 team leagues.

Jordan Zimmermann SP WAS - The "other" Zimmermann in WAS, Jordan has burst onto the scene with 20 K's in only 14 innings. He has also wrapped up the 5th spot in the National rotation and looks to possibly be this year's Edison Volquez. While I'm not ready to put him on that level, he is definitely worth a flyer late in most 12 team leagues, if anything for the strike out potential.

Ryan Howard 1b PHI - This might be an obvious one, but I wanted to point out the potential steal this guy could be. People are scared off from Howard because of his BA, but if he can raise his average to .270 he'll easily give you first round value. He's leading all players with 7 HRs and hitting a respectable .293 with 18 RBIs. I think he rebounds and is well worth a selection at the end of round 1 or beginning of round 2.

Moving up and moving down

As we get closer and closer to the start of the season, you should be ready for your draft. By this time, you shouldn't need to move guys to far one way or another (except in the case of serious injury or demotion). Today I wanted to discuss a few guys that seem to be moving in recent drafts. Some are gaining value while others are sliding for various reason. Let's start with the guys moving up.

LA's offense - With Manny now in the fold once again, the entire Dodgers lineup seems to be gaining momentum. From Furcal to Kemp to Either, everyone loves having Manny's bat back in the lineup. There's good reason for it and I agree that this offense should be one of the best in the NL...if everyone can stay healthy.

Chris Carpenter SP STL and Eric Bedard SP SEA - Two form aces seem to be returning to form this spring. There's always risk when a pitcher is coming back from injury, but these guys are well worth the risk where they are being drafted. Just be sure not to reach too high for them or the risk might out weigh the reward.

Pablo Sandoval 1b/3b/C? SF - Depending on your league Sandoval could offer great value at C. He's still a solid sleeper at corner, but he's been rising up draft boards more recently. I still think he's worth a shot and should deliver great numbers in the heart of SF's lineup.

Now let's turn to the guys sliding down a bit...

Ervin Santana SP LA - After a breakout season last year, he was poised to take the next step to elite status. That's been put on hold by a sprained elbow ligament. He's going to rest and take some time off, but that's a huge red flag for me and I've dropped him down a few rounds. If he falls too far, he could be a steal, but watch this closely.

Alex Rodriguez 3b NYY - This is an obvious one, but a tough one to gauge. Where do you take him now? We don't know when he'll be back. We don't know when he'll be himself even when he's back. My guess is someone will reach for him too early. I'll be the one who lets someone else draft him and then swoop in after he returns and isn't quite himself for the first few games. He should be Arod by the All Star break, but that might be too long to wait for some owners.

Cole Hamels SP PHI - After a superb season followed by an MVP World Series, Hamels recently complained of some discomfort in his elbow. He had a huge work load last year and this doesn't help the concerns. I wouldn't be too worried, but I'd defiantly bump him down a few spots.

Arod, Santana and Manny

Let's start with the biggest news of the last week, the bizarre saga of Alex Rodriguez. After the buzz of the steroid controversy cooled off, we were left with a seemingly normal spring training from Arod. He was playing and practicing without any issues. Then the news comes in that he's dealing with a cyst on his hip. Then a trip to see a specialist. Then he's having hip surgery and he's out at least 10 weeks. Then he's going to try rehab, no surgery, and might not miss a beat. Then finally we get news this week. He will undergo surgery, but it's a "combo" surgery on the hip that should allow him to return quicker than the original plan, but still means a recovery time from 6 - 10 weeks. So, now that we know how long he will be out, what does it mean for fantasy? Well, he's obviously going to drop, but how far should he drop? I'm guessing he returns mid-May and misses about 4-6 weeks of the regular season. I also think it'll take him some time to get back to playing shape and get his timing down. I'd still take a shot at Arod around round 3 or 4 of a standard 12 team mixed league (assuming you can throw him in your DL slot), but he'll still come with a ton of risk and even though the upside is huge, I'd probably let someone else take a chance on him.

We had another injury scare last week when news of Johan Santana's elbow soreness popped up. He was shut down and the talk was of him missing the season opener. Well, the fear has subsided as he's had a few successful bullpen sessions. He's scheduled to make his spring debut this Thursday and he is still planning to start opening day. I wouldn't totally dismiss this news, but see how he performs the rest of spring to determine if this should bump him down your rankings at all.

Last, but not least is the news of Manny Ramirez finally signing in LA. It's about time. We all knew Manny wasn't going to sit out. We also knew Manny wasn't stupid. The new contract allows him to opt out after 1 year and go after bigger money yet again next winter. He is a year older, but this immediately bumps up the value of the rest of the LA lineup once again. If Furcal can stay healthy, he'll be one of the best leadoff hitters in the league. I also like Kemp and Either to build on their breakout years last season. I even like Russell Martin to return to dominance at the catcher position. Manny's presence can only help the Dodgers team. Now that's assuming Manny doesn't mentally check out like he did in Boston. Only time will tell. As for drafting Manny, he's going in the late 2nd round to mid 3rd round. He will be a year older, but I still see solid enough production to make him a #1 OF.